There is a sort of magical thinking that has pervaded the Republican Party such that the candidates are operating under the starry-eyed assumption that some act of God will ultimately take Donald Trump out of the game and off of their hands in 2023. It is the optimism of the lottery scratch ticket dude. What act of God, precisely, would accomplish this I know not. Sexually transmitted disease? Heart attack while eating a Big Mac with catsup? Long COVID?
Whatever deus ex machina the cosmos is allegedly conjuring to clear Donald J. Trump from the chessboard for Republicans, it had better happen damned fast. Because Alvin Bragg’s weak tea of an indictment — even if it does result in some prison time — has actually strengthened Trump’s claim to the nomination, even as it just about obliterates his chances at winning at the general election.
You see, dear reader — While the majority of Americans think Trump did something illegal (53%), according to a new ABC/Ipsos poll, the indictment has hardened support for the former President within the party. Trump now tops DeSantis by double digits, nationally — no other candidate in the Republican Party comes close. From Ipsos:
Donald Trump's position as front-runner for the Republican nomination continues to strengthen with 58% of Republicans supporting him, compared to 48% earlier this week, and 44% last month. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis receives one-fifth of Republican support (21%), statistically unchanged from earlier this week (19%), but down nine points from March (30%). Two in five Republicans also said that the criminal case against Donald Trump makes them more likely to vote Donald Trump (40%), while just 12% said it made them less likely, and another 38% said it had no impact.
It was a profound missed opportunity. Imagine if one of the Republican challengers with some grit and nothing to lose — Haley? Pompeo? — hit Trump hard on any one of the 34 charges. Just rhetorically punched him in his doughy solar plexus. Granted, the backlash would have been intense. Death threats by his minions; the usual. Trump’s chief psychological characteristic, clearly, is that he has no shame. Angered, cornered, Trump is at his most animalistic. He could conceivably allege to his tens of millions of followers that a challenger’s father helped assassinate JFK. He could allege child sexual abuse. Nothing — nothing — is beneath Donald Trump. New Yorkers know this and have known this since the 1980s. Trump is a damned savage.
DeSantis’s numbers have collapsed in the wake of the indictment. Whether or not DeSantis is “on the spectrum,” as some speculate, he clearly has not taken advantage of his moment. Or, rather, his wife may not have taken advantage of their moment. And that moment may have passed. In the early part of last month, Governor Ron DeSantis had the anti-Trump lane in the 2023 race locked. Republican donors were all but throwing their panties at him. He was the newest, freshest piece of political ass on the scene.
Until he wasn’t.
The pendulum swings. We may never actually get to see if DeSantis actually has a strong — or glass — jaw. Alas, it would have been fun watching DeSantis take a punch from Trump on the debate stage; to see what kind of a man he is. But his one moment to kick Trump, to make him pay, when he was down, lacked the viciousness necessary to take home the nomination of the MAGAfied Republican Party. Does DeSantis not know that the modern Republican Party is the Id Party, the primitive, reptile brain party. It is where freak flags float in a gruesome porridge of gunpower and white, male tribal rage. DeSantis’s misread of the room suggests that there may be something to those “…on the spectrum” rumors.
And then there’s Nikki Haley. She, too, missed her chance to run on something other than being only woman on the debate stage. She could have had remarkable resonance if she attacked trump on the Stormy Daniels affair on moral, conservative grounds. But raising such an objection in public would have ended Trump’s treating her with kid gloves. In the end, Haley, like DeSantis, feared getting the “Full Trump Treatment.” The full, unhinged, Trump treatment is something the entire field — except Chris Christie, but more on him later — fears absolutely and utterly. Ambassador Nikki Haley would rather be patronized than face a full-frontal Trump (FFT) attack. Nikki Haley, methinks, is running for Vice President.
Senator Tim Scott, surprisingly, has a shot at this. Hear me out; don’t laugh. Not a solid shot, to be sure — but a small and distant one. As the Black Republican that nullifies the (right) charges of racism in the Party. Further, he, of all the candidates, is offering an optimistic run, one with substantive policies (charter schools; opportunity zones), one that could catch fire in the nice Midwest. He, of all the candidates, is offering himself and his life in stark contrast to the sloppy, raw dog, rage-filled life of Trump. He is on Banking in the Senate. Finally, Is the Republican Party sick of Trump yet? Or do they still want more of the porcelain broken? Is Senator Tim Scott The Stabilizer?
Don’t talk to me of Chris Christie. Chris Christie’s candidacy can only be properly construed under the category of jejune. He is a punk bomb-rider, aimed at Trump, looking to inflict maximum carnage and destruction. When Jared screws you, you stay screwed in the party of his father-in-law. Christie is a spent political force; an isolated piece at Draughts. He is running for a permanent job as a political commentator at ABC News, not for President or even Vice. Jared must have planned this exquisite revenge for a decade, attending to each detail of the betrayal with delight. It took an Emperor Palpatine level of conniving to crush Christie so completely.
Asa Hutchinson will probably be a Chris Christie-light candidacy, as he announced directly adjacent to the indictment, giving his game away. But why get Coors Light, when there’s Coors in the fridge. If you go in for that sort of thing, which is watery filth. (Averted Gaze)
Mike Pence, like Senator Scott, is interesting. He has some legs, but not much. The Republican primary is a hierarchical party, so he has some claim to the throne. He was a loyal number two (until 1/6), and though he is running against his former boss, he has every right to be considered a serious player. He is also the most qualified, as much as it pains me to say that.
Trump is also astonishingly weak with Evangelicals, despite delivering to them the — holy of holies! — Supreme Court. They have not forgiven him for not being 100% anti-abortion now and forever; he has not forgiven them for not giving him complete and utter subservience. Pence has always been one of them. Pence began as an Evangelical conservative radio preacher. It could get very interesting, however, if Senator Tim Scott eats at some of Pence’s Evangelical support. Interesting for Tim Scott, but tragic for Pence.
Vivek Ramaswamy and Mike Pompeo don't seem to even rate serious consideration as contenders. Both seem to be running for jobs, maybe Veep? This is Trump’s nomination to lose, barring any new entrants. Tim Scott and Mike Pence are the only ones that seem to have the portfolio and moxie to challenge the former President on the debate stage credibly. But if Trump wins the Republican Party nomination, the Ipsos poll shows — at least for now — that he would go down in flaming defeat, once aging, to President Biden.
That is, of course, if the election were held today. Which it is not.
In past strikes, networks turned to reality TV. Now it’s more complicated. (LAT)
The nerd’s guide to Biden’s newest electric vehicle push (Politico)
The Dark Truth of Biden’s Immigration Policy (TNR)