Senator Tim Scott's Lonely, Longshot Presidential Campaign
What are Tim Scott's chances in the GOP
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is the inspirational candidate of choice of moderate Republican commentators. Ahem. Though influential, moderate Republican commentators are not the base of the Republican Party, the most influential segment of the party with regards to winning the nomination. So — what are Scott’s actual chances of getting the GOP nomination? It is still about a year out before the first caucuses and primaries, and very early in the game, but Tim Scott is only at 1%, according to the latest Morning Consult poll.
His greatest strength in the field is that he is the only black Republican in the Senate. “Republicans are tired of being called racist,” is how Republican strategist Mike Murphy on the Hacks on Tap podcast made the argument. But how strong is that argument within the context of a white grievance party? Is Scott nimble enough to “use” his own success in the Republican Party as an inspiration story that justifies white victimhood? Or is his ambition even greater, say, to uplift the party from white victimhood (And, good luck with that)? We’ll see …
Tomorrow, Scott goes to Iowa, the first caucus state, for the second time this year on his “Faith in America” listening tour. Clearly, he is interested in the nomination, though he has yet to announce anything. His 2023 listening tour began at the Republican Party of Polk County Lincoln Dinner on February 22, in West Des Moines, Iowa. At that time, Tim floated a Reaganesque “new American sunrise” theme, counterprogramming against Trump’s apocalyptic divisiveness. “I see 330 million Americans getting back to celebrating our shared blessings again, tolerating our differences again, and having each other’s backs again,” Scott said at a speech at Drake University in Des Moines in February. “We need new leaders who will lift us up, not tear us down.”
Swell and lovely.
Further, this Thursday, Scott dips his toes in New Hampshire, the first primary state. From Fox News:
On April 13, the senator will make his first visit this year to New Hampshire for a round of retail politicking as he greets voters at the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester, which for decades has been a must stop in the Granite State for White House hopefuls. Later in the day, he’s scheduled to meet with local pastors and Republican leaders.
And then it gets more interesting, as the day after New Hampshire he returns to his home state, the state he represents in the Senate — also, mirabile dictu, an early primary state — for a two-day “donor summit.” South Carolina is the second primary state after New Hampshire and the Iowa caucus, so you can see an emerging theme for this “listening tour,” tracking the early primary states.
To be fair, Scott has other advantages beyond just his race. His candidacy is framed around an aspirational theme, the opposite of the former President’s. Trump — the frontrunner — is deeply polarizing, particularly to Independents, who are key to any successful general election campaign. An amazing 62% (!) of Independents actually approve of Trump’s indictment, while 38% disapprove, according to a CNN poll this month. That suggests, if those numbers hold, that Trump is virtually unelectable in a general election against Biden (at least for now).
But the nomination is still Trump’s to lose. Scott, who is now running digital ads in Iowa as well as speechifying about needing new leaders, is almost certainly running. As character is destiny, Trump will predictably go low while Scott is clearly attempting to navigate the anti-Trump lane — moderates, Evangelicals and stone-cold anti-Trumpers — which is at present Sargasso-thick with contestants for the nomination. Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are all pretty much in that crowded lane already and possibly more to come. Politico earlier this month did a long piece on the aspirational optimism of a Scott candidacy, saying, in part:
The South Carolina Republican is perhaps best known for his work on opportunity zones, a bipartisan proposal included in Republicans’ 2017 tax cut law that offered tax breaks to wealthy individuals who invest in certain designated areas. The program was originally designed to boost low-income communities; Scott is expected to tout it, if he ends up running for president.
Although proponents of the program argue it brings an influx of private investment to economically distressed areas, Democrats and academics have dinged opportunity zones as mainly geared to help places that are already gentrifying.
In addition to opportunity zones, Scott’s a big proponent of expanding charter schools and giving parents public money to allow them to pay for tuition at private schools. He also played a central role in police reform negotiations with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), which fell apart amid disagreements over qualified immunity and other policies. The two have also partnered on anti-lynching legislation, which became law last year, and a law that changed certain sentencing guidelines.
“We’ve worked to do everything from help expand sickle cell anemia funding to working on funding for [historically black colleges or universities],” Booker said. “Obviously, I’ve had frustrations, but in terms of just productivity he’s one of my more productive partners.”
There are, however, some unanswered questions about the viability of this optimistic-aspirational resume in its early stages. One, while all of this will certainly appeal to moderates — particularly of the Midwest-nice variety — can he really sell it in the present day, aggrieved GOP?
Two, is there an audience for opportunity zones outside of, say, the Chambers of Commerce? Is there an audience for Charter Schools outside of the Heritage Foundation? And — Three: What influence does the Chamber of Commerce/Heritage crowd have in the Republican primary? Primary fights tend, at least to my understanding, to be more of the Fox News and hardcore MAGA talk radio crowd.
Evangelicals will probably be the most receptive to this optimistic-aspirational resume. Trump is at his weakest among Evangelicals — despite the fact that he delivered to them the Supreme Court. So there is fertile ground to sow for Scott. But doesn’t Mike Pence already have that vote pretty much locked up?
So — until we actually see what Scott can do on the stump, these questions will remain in the air. There is little doubt, however, that he is running, and running as a “uniter, not a divider.” I find this fascinating because it is the first time a credible African-American — a sitting United States Senator from a conservative state — is running for President in the Republican party. Black Republicanism is, quite frankly, a strange phenomenon, particularly with all the white grievance atmospherics. But I’ll be following this candidacy, for as long as it lasts, rather closely.
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