Why Joe Biden Will Win
A message of comfort for overanxious lovers of democracy
Many of my friends are freaking out about the polls that are saying that if the election were held today, Donald J. Trump would be elected President. But — and this is a very important point — the election is not being held today. Or tomorrow. Or the day after.
Election 2024, between President Joe Biden and Donald J Trump, is going to be decided 228 days from now. The polls, in fine, are naught else but boob bait for the overanxious. Fodder for the watercooler. And, at their most useful, data points for the campaigns. To keep tabs on where to spend more time and money and, conversely, where to spend less.
But at this point in time — 228 days away from the gladiatorial fundament — the Biden campaign is doing fine. Let me say this again, for those dear readers and the friends of those dear readers whose anxieties are higher than the pollen count — the Biden campaign is going swimmingly (see picture above).
I say this because Team Biden, thus far, has showed that it is measured, serious and open to talking to violet states. The beltway fantasyland chatter about Biden or Harris dropping out has ended. Last week BidenWorld opened Wisconsin campaign offices in Milwaukee, a pivotal listening station for black, women and suburban turnout. “The headquarters, the exact location of which was not immediately disclosed, will be one of 44 offices across the state operated by the Biden campaign and state and national Democrats, according to the Biden campaign,” writes Molly Beck of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Wisconsin is, arguably, the most important state in 2024’s election. The voice of the Rust Belt, really.
He is targeting — and not taking for granted — the Latino vote. Since the widely lauded State of the Union, the President has been focusing his message to Latino voters in the Southwest. Seung Min Kim of the AP illustrates one such humble pitch in Arizona:
“I need you back,” he told several dozen supporters packed into a local Mexican restaurant.
Biden said the upcoming election isn’t a referendum on him, but rather a choice between “me and a guy named Trump.” The Democrat highlighted Trump’s derogatory rhetoric toward Latinos, from saying during his winning 2016 campaign that many of those coming to the United States from Mexico are rapists to the Republican’s more recent claim that migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.”
Biden said Hispanic unemployment is the lowest it’s been in a long time because of his policies, highlighted administration initiatives to help small businesses and reduce gun violence, and criticized Trump for wanting more tax cuts for rich people.
Last week the President was also in key southwest swing state Nevada. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate, the third highest average gas rate and frustratingly high home prices. As Nevada goes, so goes the southwest?
Coincidentally, the President has also been in contact with the Clintons, formerly power centers in DC, power brokers, always, in Nevada. The President has a large circle of former Presidents and Presidential candidates to rely on in his re-elect campaign. “When (Bill Clinton and Joe Biden) have spoken privately, they’ve often mused about how they consider themselves unique in the modern Democratic Party — able to relate to working-class voters more than other prominent pols,” writes Gabriel Debenedetti of New York. “Hillary, meanwhile, has deepened her connection to (Vice President) Harris.” And this weekend Biden will rely on former President Obama and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to remind America of the 14th anniversary of the Affordable Care Act. Six in ten adults, according to a recent poll, approve of so-called “ObamaCare.” Trump, of course, is as obsessed as Ahab at spearing that right’s great white whale. Saturday will provide a study in candidate contrast with regards to health care policy.
The Biden campaign is doing so well, in fact, that POTUS is feeling his oats. He has begun fucking with Trump’s head. Jumbling his mental cabbage, so to speak. “Biden is convinced he'll rattle Trump if he taunts him daily,” report Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson in Axios. And he is doing so in such a way that working class voters will notice that the Emperor has no clothes. He’s laughing at Trump’s paper. Which must be quite painful, considering Trump’s legal costs can only be properly construed under the category of stratospheric.
TrumpWorld already has certain disadvantages working against it that don’t readily show up in polls 228 days from the general. He lost to Biden in 2020 in three electoral states and seven million votes in the popular election, so there’s that at the outset. Trump also has had a woman problem since the Access Hollywood tape went viral. Further, the dude can’t keep from revealing his serious issues regarding women with his language. Look at how he treated Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao; look at how he treated Nikki Haley; look at how he has treated E Jean Carroll; look at how he treated Casey DeSantis; look at how he treated Stormy Daniels. It must be — and how does one say this politely? — rather challenging for his campaign staff to keep the candidate on message. Particularly regarding women, even when they are of his own party. Beverly Hallberg, a conservative media coach, responded to a January 23 Truth Social rant against Kayleigh McEnany, on X:
Donald Trump would still keep all of his ardent supporters even if he never threw out personal insults again. He can talk tough, without having to go there. It's especially a bad look when he does it to women who worked for him. He would bring more independents and suburban women to his side if rose above this.
But … he cannot. Have you ever tried to get at 77-year old chauvinist pig to change? And that is going to be a problem for Trump, as more women, not less, will be voting this year. “In recent years, the number of women registered to vote in the U.S. has typically been about 10 million more than the number of men registered to vote,” the Center for American Women and Politics website reminds us. And Taylor Swift — with perhaps the most influential voter block on the ‘24 election, the Swifty vote — are waiting in the wings.
As this Substack has often discussed, Trump has very real problems in the suburbs. And, since COVID, suburban population growth has increased, making this piece of electoral real estate all the more valuable. In 2016, Trump outperformed Hillary Clinton in the suburbs, throwing the election in his favor; in 2020, 54% of suburban voters shifted to the Biden ticket. The Republican primary process of 2024, though rigged and brief, exposed that weakness ‘neath the underbelly of TrumpWorld. “That’s a key challenge because AP VoteCast showed nearly half of voters in the 2020 general election said they lived in the suburbs,” wrote Josh Boak and Linley Sanders of the AP. “Only about one-third of Iowa Republicans in the suburbs supported him.” And its not just Iowa, look at South Carolina. And Maricopa and Pima counties in Arizona, which will be critical to the general election.
And as the suburbia goes, so goeth the 2024 race. Nikki Haley’s quixotic race for President exposed the fact that the GOP’s fault lines and the property lines of American suburbia are one and the same. Those fault lines dig deep into states that Trump needs to win in November. “In North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia, fewer than 40% of Republican voters consider themselves MAGA,” SE Cupp notes. “And a huge majority of Haley voters in North Carolina, South Carolina and California say they won’t support Trump in the general, according to exit polling.” Those are not even all of the suburban weaknesses that Haley’s efforts have exposed. The Trump campaign is “low energy” in Telluride; in Salt Lake City; in Hanover, New Hampshire.
Which brings me to my last and final point — the trials. The trials might have helped him lock up the party’s nomination, but they will not be as helpful in the general election. In the 228 days remaining, Trump will be the defendant in multiple lawsuits. Even as the snows of winter make way for the summer and fall of 2024, the orange Palpatine will be facing a blizzard of lawsuits. And a recent Ipsos/Politico poll found that half of Americans think Trump is guilty of the crimes alleged by the Manhattan DA. The poll found that 32% of respondents said that a guilty verdict would make them less likely to support him. Of the financial burden of these trials — and his failure to raise money to cover the appeal bond — we will remain silent.
Even though President Biden will not. “Just the other day this defeated looking man came up to me and said: ‘Mr. President I need your help,” Biden told a fundraiser in Dallas. “I’m in crushing debt. I’m completely wiped out.”
The President responded: "Donald, I'm sorry. I can't help you."
“The COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-relief investments, including the American Rescue Plan Act, not only lifted the invisibility cloak that had hidden the nationwide need to invest in care, but also supported states to innovate and take action. The historic underinvestment in care, however, means that even those measures were not enough for any state to receive an A.
The top five highest-scoring states, in order, are Oregon (B+), Massachusetts (B), California (B), Colorado (B), and Minnesota (B). The five lowest-scoring states are Alabama (F), West Virginia (F), Florida (F), Wyoming (D−), and Idaho (D−).” (The Century Foundation)
“In 2018, the Trump administration issued a rule allowing states to tie Medicaid eligibility to employment, a first in the program’s 50-year history. The policy shift was the result of decades of work by Republicans who believe – contrary to empirical evidence – that anti-poverty measures like Medicaid discourage people from entering the workforce. Under the Trump-era rule, states could obtain Medicaid waivers that linked coverage to proof of work. But shortly after taking office, Biden rescinded the rule and withdrew state approvals for Medicaid work requirements that had been previously granted. One state, however, managed to keep its requirement: Georgia. In 2022, after the White House reversed Georgia’s Medicaid waiver approval, state officials sued the Biden administration, claiming it was ‘an unlawful regulatory bait and switch.’ A federal judge sided with the state, reinstating the requirement. This made Georgia the only state in the country where Medicaid eligibility was contingent on employment status. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) celebrated the ruling and said that his ‘innovative healthcare waiver…would better serve Georgians than a one-size-fits-all Medicaid expansion’ … Under the new plan, known as ‘Georgia Pathways to Coverage,’ adults who were otherwise not eligible for traditional Medicaid and earned up to the federal poverty level could receive coverage if they had proof of employment or qualifying activities like job training. Around 290,000 individuals in Georgia were potentially eligible, officials claimed. But a new report from Kaiser Family Foundation Health News (KFF) finds that Kemp’s ‘innovative’ waiver has proven costly and ineffective.” ( Tesnim Zekeria and Rebecca Crosby/Popular Information)
“On March 2, she was gone. The Belize-flagged, British-owned bulk carrier Rubymar sank in the narrow water lane between the coasts of Yemen and Eritrea. The Rubymar was the first vessel that has been completely lost since the Houthis began their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea—and its demise, with 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer, spells ecological disaster. A similar substance—ammonium nitrate—caused the devastating explosion at the Port of Beirut in 2020. It had been stored there after being abandoned on a vessel and authorities intervened to prevent an environmental disaster. Because the Houthis have no regard for the environment, there are likely to be more such disasters.” (Elisabeth Braw/FP)
“Whether it’s city politics and video gaming culture you like to read about, or your interests run to music criticism and sports – there’s probably a journalist collective out there seeking your support. Meet the new model on the rise: the publication owned and operated by its worker-members, liberated from the ever contracting and ever soul-crushing world of legacy media. These publications offer contributors a chance to keep doing what they love without the specter of anxiety over sudden layoffs that imbues today’s newsrooms – and to do so with the camaraderie and collaboration of fellow journalists. The website for Flaming Hydra – ‘a collective of 60 writers, on fire and hard to kill,’ per the tagline – does not feature a masthead in the traditional sense. There is no editor-in-chief or associate publisher, no head of events or vice-president of revenue sales, nor cultural attaché. Instead, there are dozens of bylines, mostly names that will be familiar to readers of traditional media.” (Lauren Mechling/Guardian)
“Rupert Murdoch is at risk of being personally dragged into another major lawsuit.
Lawyers for Prince Harry and a number of other notable public figures, including Guy Ritchie and Hugh Grant, asked a U.K. court on Wednesday for permission to amend their lawsuit against Murdoch's British newspaper company, leveling the explosive allegation that the billionaire media mogul was personally involved in covering up wrongdoing. The lawsuit, filed in 2019, accuses News Group Newspapers, the parent company of The Sun tabloid and defunct News of the World, of illegal privacy invasions, including hacking. The illicit behavior occurred from the mid-1990s until 2016, according to the lawsuit. Lawyers for the Duke of Sussex now want to include claims that Murdoch personally provided ‘knowingly false’ information on the matter. They also allege Rebekah Brooks, a top Murdoch lieutenant who currently oversees his British newspapers, of having also ‘lied and/or gave deliberately misleading evidence.’ Executives at the newspaper group, including Murdoch, publicly promoted the false claim that there was only ‘one rogue reporter’ in the News of the World scandal and attempted to ‘buy’ the silence of senior executives, Harry's lawyers said.” (Oliver Darcy/Reliable Sources)