Weekend Reading
“Keep passing the open windows,” The Hotel New Hampshire
“There was a Caesar-at-the-Colosseum air to President Donald J. Trump’s appearance at this year’s Super Bowl, the first by a sitting president. The leader of the state took his place in the grand arena — which figuratively included more than 127 million TV viewers — to preside over his people’s biggest event of gladiatorial combat. Fox cameras captured him saluting during the anthem, amid shots of service members and a military flyover, part of the increasingly martial pageant of the pregame ceremony. He even had Super Bowl ads, of a sort: Spots for Fox News during the game repeatedly featured a photo of Mr. Trump raising a fist after the assassination attempt against him last summer. Seeking the media spotlight is nothing new for Mr. Trump. But in his second term, there is already a pronounced trend in how he and his allies are using imagery with an almost imperial aesthetic to project an air of ubiquity, authority and invincibility. On TV news and social media, his immigration-enforcement raids are being packaged like mini reality-TV shows — complete with perp walks and even guest stars — to flood viewers with images of relentless action. His signing ceremonies are playlets of theatrical conquest. Even in his inaugural portrait, where he smiled in 2017, he now scowls. The Trump 2.0 penchant for dominance theater was evident from the inauguration, at the arena show where Mr. Trump basked in the cheers of a MAGA crowd as he signed executive orders at a makeshift presidential desk. The manner of the signing said just as much about Mr. Trump’s vision of leadership as the text of the orders did: the sole decider lifting his pen and ruling by decree. All this stage-crafted vigor may have paid off for Mr. Trump in his early polling. Despite disagreements over specific actions and proposals, a majority of respondents to a recent CBS News poll described him as ‘tough,’ ‘energetic’ and ‘effective’ — the natural offshoot of media images designed to convey that the maximum leader is everywhere, doing everything.” (James Poniewozik/NYT)
“The microbes living in this French harbour have never recovered from World War Two. Between 2012 and 2017, Raffaele Siano pulled sediment cores from the seabed at Brest harbour, wondering what he was going to find. When he and his colleagues at the French Institute for Ocean Science (Ifremer), analysed the fragments of DNA captured in those cores – they discovered something remarkable. The oldest, deepest layers of sediment – dating to before 1941 – had traces of plankton called dinoflagellates that were strikingly different to the genetic traces of plankton left in the shallower, more recent layers. ‘There was a group, an order of these dinoflagellates, that was very abundant before World War Two – and after World War Two it almost disappeared,’ says Siano. He and his colleagues published a study detailing their findings in 2021. Siano mentions that Brest harbour had been bombed during the war. Then, in 1947, a Norwegian cargo ship exploded in the Bay of Brest. The disaster killed 22 people and spread ammonium nitrate, a toxic chemical used to make fertiliser and explosives, into the sea. Even younger sediment in the 1980s and 1990s showed further changes in the plankton community in the harbour. ‘We correlated this from another type of pollution coming from intensive agricultural activities,’ says Siano. Nature has a way of remembering things. Echoes of certain human activities, especially highly-polluting ones, sometimes show up in tree rings, coastal sediments and ecosystems.” (Chris Baranuik/BBC)
“Russia has lost 850,000 troops and over 10,000 tanks, according to Ukraine's military, providing a staggering estimate of the toll nearly three years of grinding war has taken on the Russian military. February 24 will mark three years since Russian tanks rolled into different parts of Ukraine and Moscow's full-scale invasion got underway. The war has become Europe's largest since World War II, and while the conflict has debuted brand-new tactics and next-generation weapons, Kyiv and Moscow have leaned heavily on armored vehicles and tanks on the battlefield. Both have suffered losses, but Russia is particularly known for chewing through high numbers of tanks and other equipment, as well as racking up eyewatering numbers of casualties, to take territory from Ukraine. Ukraine's military said on Monday that Russia had lost more than 10,001 tanks in Europe's largest land conflict since World War II, including 9 in the previous 24 hours. It also claimed that Russian casualties at the front reached 850,490, with at least 1170 Putin's troops eliminated over the past day.” (Ellie Cook/Newsweek)
“Over the last year, European defence spending jumped by 11.7% in real terms to reach USD457 billion, with 2024 marking the tenth consecutive year of growth. Indeed, Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea elevated threat perceptions across the continent and rejuvenated long-standing commitments from NATO members to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Regional growth in 2024 was dominated by the 23.2% real uplift in the German defence budget; however, future defence-budget growth there is uncertain following the collapse of the ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition in November 2024 and the upcoming election. Defence budgets in other countries also grew significantly, such as in Poland, which became the 15th largest defence spender globally in 2024, up from 20th place in 2022. Nonetheless, European growth remained outpaced by uplifts in Russia’s total military expenditure, which grew by 41.9% in real terms to reach an estimated RUB13.1trn (USD145.9bn). In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, Russian total military expenditure reached I$462bn in 2024, exceeding the total for Europe. Russian spending in 2024 represented the equivalent of 6.7% of GDP – more than double the levels in the years prior to its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Such spending and associated fiscal pressures are likely to continue into 2025, with identifiable defence spending estimated to reach 7.5% of GDP. Conversely, growth in US defence spending in 2024 remained constrained by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The overall impact of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency on the US defence budget is still ambiguous in light of the influence of fiscal hawks within the Republican Party as well as any potential reductions in overseas commitments. Beyond the US, Trump’s re-election intensifies the pressure on Europe’s NATO members to raise their defence spending. In January, Trump said that the minimum level of expenditure for NATO members should increase to 5% of GDP. If European NATO members maintained the 2024 rate of growth, then defence spending would reach an average 3% of GDP within five years and 5% within ten. However, maintaining the elevated 2024 rate of growth is likely unfeasible for most countries.” (Military Balance Blog)
“The papacy has existed for 2,000 years, but popes’ influence on the world stage has varied dramatically in that time. Medieval pontiffs spoke with the self-assuredness of leaders who claimed authority over kings and emperors and expected them to obey. By the first half of the 20th century, however, the pope’s clout had shrunk dramatically. While Benedict XV had spoken out against World War I before, he didn’t dare rebuke the governments involved until three years into the conflict; when he did, he wrote a letter condemning ‘useless slaughter’ and sounded almost apologetic for his interference. Popes have regained confidence since then, with charismatic figures such as John XXIII and Paul VI reclaiming the right to, if not give orders to world leaders, at least try to point them in the right direction. Hope, Pope Francis’s new autobiography, follows in this canon. The book reads like the pontiff’s effort to make his voice heard in a world that is moving further away from everything he stands for. Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, Francis became pope in 2013 at the age of 76. The Argentine is arguably the most progressive leader in the history of the Catholic Church.” (Michele Barbaro/Foreign Policy)
“The Democratic Republic of Congo is calling on the NBA, Formula 1 and major international soccer clubs to end multimillion-dollar deals with Rwanda's autocratic government. The NBA, whose recent Africa expansion is centered in Rwanda, was the latest to receive a letter from Congo officials. Soccer teams Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain and racing's Formula 1 received similarly worded pleas in recent weeks. In her letter Thursday to NBA commissioner Adam Silver, DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner questioned the NBA's morality, calling on Silver to consider whether the league's ‘commitment to social justice and respect for human rights’ aligns with its business ties to Rwanda, which the DRC blames for a surge in violence in its country. The letter asked Silver to sever the league's dealings with Rwanda, ‘If not for your own conscience, then at least in solidarity with the innocent victims of Rwandan aggression.’ The NBA launched the Basketball Africa League, its first league outside North America, five years ago in Rwanda's capital of Kigali. The NBA has said the U.S. government encouraged it to do business in Rwanda, and when asked about the DRC letter, a league spokesman said, ‘We will continue to follow U.S. government guidance everywhere we operate.’” (Mark Fainaru-Wada/ESPN)
“On March 2, one of the last pillars of linear TV will fall: the Academy Awards. Hollywood’s biggest night is a celebration of cinema, but this year it may as well double as a requiem for traditional TV. For the first time in the history of the broadcast, the Oscars will be streamed live outside of the pay TV ecosystem, on Disney’s Hulu, alongside its broadcast home on ABC. In fact, 2025 is quietly shaping up to be linear TV’s last gasp, the year when the pieces that were gluing what was left of the pay-TV bundle together break free from it, and migrate toward the inevitable streaming future. Entering this year, a surprising number of events have required a pay TV subscription (or at least a streaming bundle provider like YouTube TV) to watch live. There’s the Oscars, of course, but also everything on the ESPN networks, including Monday Night Football, and the NBA Finals on ABC. Fox’s slate of college football games, Sunday NFL games and MLB playoff games haven’t been available to stream outside the pay TV bundle either.” (Alex Weprin/THR)
“Earlier this week, Business Insider reported that Netflix was interested in pursuing a video podcast strategy that echoes what has worked on YouTube and what has inspired Spotify in recent months. YouTube is now streamed more often on TV sets than on phones in the United States. Not to mention that its continuous rise in TV market share arrives at the same time that C.E.O Neal Mohan and Google C.E.O Sundar Pichai have included podcasting in public remarks as an imperative feature for the company. If ever there was doubt that Netflix and YouTube were competitors, the continued dominance of TV audiences choice to direct their eyeballs toward YouTube reaffirms there are new content opportunities for younger audiences. Think of the original creator wave compared to linear television. Video podcasts have replaced daytime TV and podcasts have tried to replace talk radio. Netflix, a company that is second to YouTube in TV streaming share in the United States and doesn’t have any audio-first presence, clearly sees an opportunity to lean more into passivity rather than try to continue fighting on expensive scripted and unscripted programming alone. Suddenly, it would seem, podcasting is hot again.” (Julia Alexander/Posting Nexus)
“So, after the first 200,000,000 $TRUMP digital coins (out of an eventual 1 billion) were put on the market at $7 on January 17, 2025, we are supposed to believe that irrationally exuberant Trump-lovers, eager to share in the glitter and gilt of the brand, immediately drove the price to $74. It has now subsided to the neighborhood $16, which makes the President $3.2 billion richer…out of thin air, as he once said—accurately—in his pre-pro-crypto period. Now, firmly pro-crypto, he launched this venture three days before his presidency opened for, well, business. This would be tawdry if that was all there was to it. Just another way for this congenital buckraker, this most petty and corrupt of presidents, to cash in on his electoral good fortune. But that’s not all there is to it: $TRUMP is a clear path to corruption. Say you want to get a Pentagon contract for toilet seats, or a regulation on dumping mercury into the water lifted—you could show your appreciation for our leader by investing $1 million or $1 billion in Trump’s crypto. No one would ever know.” (Joe Klein/Sanity Clause)
“On February 6, President Donald Trump issued an executive order to impose sanctions on officials, employees, and agents of the International Criminal Court (ICC) for ‘illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel.’ The executive order, which restricts targets’ entry into the United States and allows their property and assets to be blocked, currently only names ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan as a target, but others are likely to follow. Trump’s order follows similar action by Congress to levy sanctions against foreign nationals involved in efforts to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute Americans and allies that don’t consent to the court’s jurisdiction. Eleven days before Trump’s second inauguration, the House of Representatives passed a bill dubbed the ‘Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act,’ which purports to protect U.S. and allied personnel. But the bill, like Trump’s executive order, mentions just one ally by name: Israel, which waged a devastating retaliatory war in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks. The bill has been with the Senate for more than a month and, if it passes, Trump is sure to sign it into law. (It seems that senators were moving too slowly for the president, who wanted to attack the court as soon as was possible.) While it would be mostly duplicative at this point, the bill becoming law would underscore how broad and deep the U.S. government’s antipathy toward the ICC goes—not just among Republicans but also among a number of Democrats. But in time, Trump and his allies on the Hill will likely find that sanctions aren’t effective and hurt more than they help.” (Kelebogile Zvobgo/Brookings)
“Germany’s defense minister pushed back hard against U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s complaints Friday about the state of democracy in Europe, saying nine days before his country’s election that it is ‘unacceptable’ to draw a parallel between the region and authoritarian governments. Vance lectured European governments about free speech in an appearance at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, saying that he fears that it is ‘in retreat’ across the continent. ‘To many of us on the other side of the Atlantic, it looks more and more like old entrenched interests hiding behind ugly Soviet era words like misinformation and disinformation, who simply don’t like the idea that somebody with an alternative viewpoint might express a different opinion or, God forbid, vote a different way, or even worse, win an election,’ Vance said. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, speaking a couple of hours later, said he couldn’t let the speech go without comment. ‘If I understood him correctly, he is comparing conditions in parts of Europe with those in authoritarian regimes,’ Pistorius said. ‘That is unacceptable, and it is not the Europe and not the democracy in which I live and am currently campaigning.’” (AP)
“I have a copy of Through the Looking-Glass that once belonged to my ex. I would like to have read it. But when I finally got around to cracking it open, a photograph slipped out from the pages. The image was of children’s faces and a cake. I recognized a name written in icing on the cake and then my ex’s ex in one of the children’s faces. I don’t remember what I did with the photo. It felt weird to have it but also weird to throw it out. I saw the woman in the photo a few years ago, sitting a few rows ahead of me at a performance in a SoHo loft. Right before the performance started, someone else trickled in and chose the only empty chair, which was in the first row. Immediately, another smartly dressed woman approached to explain the seat wasn’t available, then sat in it herself. It became apparent that this woman was the author of the work. She seemed to take herself very seriously. She watched the whole thing leaned forward, mouthing the actors’ lines along with them. The performance took itself very seriously. My ex’s ex, who also takes herself very seriously, seemed to enjoy it. My ex, on the other hand, has a sense of humor.” (Dan Bevacqua/The Paris Review)
“… Pete Hegseth will, astonishingly, get confirmed as SecDef (buoyed by Majority Leader Thune), only to be carried along by the Department bureaucracy. As Hegseth spends much of the year doing high-profile photo-ops, the Department’s massive bureaucracy will manage the day-to-day healtgh of the organization … Abigail Spanberger will win the Virginia's gubernatorial election and be increasingly embraced as a possible national candidate … Internationally, the practice of ‘sports washing’ will extend beyond Saudi Arabia and creep into other authoritarian regimes, like Rwanda and the UAE … NYC subways become ground zero for the national debate about how to deal with mental illness as well as homelessness. Citing ‘chaos,’ the increasingly influential NYPost will continue to play to the worst instincts of frustrated commuters, appealing not to the creation of a just policy solution, but increasingly towards the normalization of vigilante behavior. Video instances of spectacular cruelty in horrific viral videos as well as violent NYPDs dealings with the mentally-ill will surface in the Spring of 2025 … Eric Adams will get a Presidential pardon and, as a result, will allow Homeland Security to deport removeable noncitizens in sweeps at city courthouses … Andrew Cuomo will run for Mayor of the city.” (Predictions 2025)