The state of the US Senate is pretty up-in-the-air — for Democrats. This seems almost like a permanent state of affairs, unfortunately. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans seem able to score a clear majority, which has only compounded our problems and brought us to the brink of serious, unironic “civil war” discussions.
Maryland’s Ben Cardin, 79, who has served three-terms in the Senate, announced that he will not seek reelection in 2024, opening up the possibility of a Republican taking over that seat. This is not the worst case scenario, as Jamie Raskin, a high-profile House Democrat, announced that he in in remission for cancer and has been mentioned as a possible candidate for that seat. Plus, Maryland is significantly blue. It is not even that surprising as news, considering that Cardin raised a surprisingly low dollar amount in late ‘22. It is, however, a sad and disturbing aspect of our very flawed system that elected legislators have to raise such large amounts of cash in order to be relevant.
If only Maryland were the worst of our problems. It is not. The entire map looks poor for Democrat prospects in ‘24, and the low approval ratings of the Biden-Harris ticket do not inspire confidence. From Ursula Perano of the Daily Beast:
On virtually every front, Senate Democrats are on defense in 2024. Sen. Jon Tester is vying for re-election in a steadily red Montana. The same can be said for Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Or Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia, who hasn’t even agreed to run for re-election yet but is almost certainly the only hope for Democrats in that state. Democrats also have to navigate the situation in Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is running for re-election in a three-way race with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) where a Republican could ultimately prevail.
Are we even sure that Senator Joe Manchin, who has always been an incredibly difficult Senator for Democrats to deal with, isn’t running as an Independent against Joe Biden (as is sometimes rumored)? Are we sure about anything, regarding Manchin, in ‘24?
Manchin’s only consolation, if he runs, is that his (possible) Republican opposition is already bitterly divided. Republican Congressman Alex Mooney from the Second District is being backed by the deeply pocketed Club for Growth, which has broken, very publicly, with Trump. In the opposite corner, Governor Jim Justice, also running for the Republican nomination, is MAGA all the way. Do the two cancel themselves out, allowing Manchin to pull off another upset in a state that Donald Trump won by 42 points? From CNN, which labels Manchin the most vulnerable Senate incumbent:
Republicans will likely be spending quite a lot of time and money attacking each other in the primary. The Club for Growth’s political arm is backing House Freedom Caucus member Alex Mooney, while Gov. Jim Justice will likely have backup from GOP party leaders. The wealthy governor, who was first elected as a Democrat before switching parties in 2017, has high name ID and is close with Trump. Mooney also has Trumpian credentials, having won a member-on-member House primary last year with the former president’s endorsement. The congressman is already attacking the governor in an ad as “Liberal Jim Justice,” using imagery of his opponent in a face mask.
And then there is the “Sinematic” Senator from Arizona, who, I argued, is better suited as an Ambassador to Italy. "Sinema takes pride in her transformation from young idealist to defender of the status quo as an example of maturity," Prem Thakker writes, masterfully taking down one of the most infuriating members of the US Senate for Democrats. Why is she so infuriating? The fact that she is, nominally, a Democrat, yet utterly infatuated with ingratiating herself with the monied classes. “Sinema seldom engages with the press; in fact, she famously seldom gives more than a minute’s attention to anyone unless they have lots of money, lots of power, or both,” Thakker continues in The New Republic. “Consequently, hedge funders and private equity titans all seem to have her on speed dial whereas her own constituents have to stalk her in public to earn a moment of her time.” Charmed, I’m sure (And Go-Go Gallego).
Which brings us to Nevada, which CNN.com rates as the fifth-most vulnerable Senate seat. Incumbent Democrat Senator Jacky Rosen is probably going to be in a close race as Nevada is always decided by several points in midterms and even in Presidential elections. More, from CNN:
“Nevada is always a battleground,” the senator says – a reminder that Democrats don’t want to take this state for granted. Rosen was first elected in 2018 – a midterm year – by 5 points. Last fall, her Democratic colleague, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, defeated former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt by less than a point.
It sort of defies logic that the difference between a MAGA Republican and a moderate Democrat can be separated by only a few points in a state like Nevada, but — here we are.
Further, Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow is retiring, not seeking a fifth term in the Senate. And in ultra-red Montana, Republicans in the Montana state Senate voted to adopt a top-two primary system, only for U.S. Senate races, and only for the 2024 election, where Jon Tester is considered vulnerable. How shady is that? Tester, it should be noted, is Montana’s only statewide elected Democrat.
And my favorite Democrat in the US Senate, Sherrod Brown, is running for re-election in Ohio, which is a solidly red state. There are several possible opponents — none of them that well known. Still, Trump won the state in 2020 by 8 points. President Joe Biden will be a bit of as drag on the ticket as he is very unpopular in the state — despite the fact that Brown has done a lot of footwork to make the state better for non-college white voters.
It is, to say the least, a rough calendar for Democrats in 2024.
The Kyrsten Sinema Theory of American Politics (The Atlantic)
Manchin’s ‘playing with fire’ — and some Democrats are tired of the drama (Politico)
Joe Biden’s “Very Risky Choice” to Run Again Increases the Scrutiny on Kamala Harris (TNY)
“Cable’s power is in its reach and repetition, not ratings; and the networks, not the stars, are in charge.” (Brian Stelter)
How the Iraq War Created Tucker Carlson (Peter Beinart)
"The Late Late Show host is leaving the airwaves—and Los Angeles—as the late-night format struggles to stay awake. Will the last talk show host left please turn out the lights?" (LA Times)