Political Media and The Prediction Market
Is the present not interesting enough to explain? Why not spend time reflecting on and providing context for the November 8 elections that just occurred around the country? Why can’t we process what exactly “the people have spoken” about the legislative branch of American government (as well as many Governorships) one week out?
And yet, immediately after the surprising midterms — and the red wave that wasn’t —journos and their host media organizations veered with gusto into horserace coverage of 2024.
2024!
It is no wonder political media appears so broken. We cannot even remain and report on the psychological space of the present moment without lurching into abstract, meaningless speculation about two years into the future. The Philosopher Kierkegaard called this “chatter.” The House of Representatives has not yet officially been called in the midterms and mainstream media organizations are reporting on what can only be properly construed under the category of Soothsaying! On November 7, David Rothkopf, host of Deep State Radio tweeted: “Tomorrow's election is not about the blue v. red horserace. It's not about ‘routs’ and ‘squeakers.’ It's about whether our democracy emerges from it healthier or weaker. Please, journalists & commentators, focus on that--on the aggregate impact of the results on future elections.” And — policy.
Well said, but is anybody listening? Walter Shapiro wrote in The New Republic:
On Thursday, barely 36 hours after the last polls closed on Election Day and when control of both the Senate and the House had yet to be called, The New York Times heralded on its homepage a piece of commentary by Frank Bruni. The former Times columnist, who now teaches journalism at Duke, breathlessly handicapped the contenders for the 2024 Democratic nomination if Joe Biden doesn’t run.
Bruni was far from alone. Over the weekend, Washington Post political reporter Aaron Blake published his own tip sheet assessing all the would-be 2024 Republican candidates, from top dog Florida Governor Ron DeSantis down to the tenth-place finisher, Florida Senator Rick Scott. Even before the 2022 elections, CNN commentator Chris Cillizza began offering his own candidate rankings on the 2024 nomination races in both parties.
Gambling and betting; betting and gambling. All this hypothetical abstract speculation for the love of the game. But how can anyone know what the chances are of a Pence or a DeSantis or even a Younkin this far out? There are so many unseen variables that can and will will arise over the course of two years. And if one cannot know what happens two years from now then isn’t a media organization engaged in this activity simply abandoning journalism? Why not focus on processing the legislative and Gubernatorial results that we have Today? The only value of horserace politics of the 2024 election, disengaged from policy and ideology, at this point is for the sake of the game. Politics as Entertainment, not reporting on the battle for our Democracy. As an emigre from a tyrannical regime, it all seems to me so profoundly childish and disappointing.
Still, it’s kind of astonishing how many organizations now treat Politics as sport. 538, foremost among the horserace sites, cares almost entirely about the game (“Who Will Have The Advantage in the Georgia Runoff”) between the blues against the reds. Their podcast has the look and feel of ESPN. Not surprisingly, 538 has a prominent Sports component. Because — College sports predictions, election forecasts that have existential effects on peoples lives, FIFA picks, what’s the diff, anyway, it’s all the same, amiright?
Well, no.
I write this, dear reader, not to be overly scoldy, but largely on account of the fact that sometime today Donald Trump will make a “very big announcement.” And, as a result of that announcement, every media organization in this country will make a giant sucking sound down to Mar a Lago. There they will speculate about a hypothetical Trump-DeSantis match employing sharp words like “knives” and “cutting.” There will be mention of Youngkin and Pence as well. There will be much media salivation and rubbing of hands together. Less couth journos early in their careers will even smack their lips and make the universal signal of deliciousness!
This is not to say a former President announcing his candidacy is not real news. It is, to be sure. But watch and see the disproportionate coverage of Trump, and the ensuing speculation about the coming intra-party infighting that hasn’t yet happened, about his shamelessness, about how DeSantis has no idea what kind of freakshow he and his wife are going to be up against, rhetorically, in the debates (which are a year away). And then there will be the oddsmakers. Always the oddsmakers; always on seedy places like the “Morning Joe.” And, of course, the prediction market (Averted Gaze).
And all of this will be going on as the bigger, more important stories — like the battle for Speaker of the House; the unusual and aggressive planning coming from the lame duck Congress; the still as-yet-undecided race for Georgia’s Senate seat and the leverage a Democrat win would take away from Joe Manchin — all recede into the background, like curls of smoke …
Black Panther breaks NOV Record with $180M. Remember when they said that African-American movies don’t play well overseas? (BoxOfficeGuru)
Beyonce leads with Nine Grammy Noms. (THR)
Candace Cameron-Bure says her new holiday movies won’t have LGBTQ story lines. (EW)
“Will networks take his speech on Tuesday night? If so, how much? And what about Fox News? Will the right-wing cable giant break into its regular prime time programming for Trump, or will the Rupert Murdoch-owned outlet give the cold shoulder to him?” (Oliver Darcy/Reliable Sources)
Taylor Swift fans — “Swifties” — crash Ticketmaster site. (Variety)
Adieu, Protocol, we hardly knew you. (CNN)
“The Asia Pacific dominated the market with a revenue share of around 35% in 2021 owing to the growing print media industry … The newspaper segment held the largest market share in 2021 and contributed over 35% of the total revenue due to the growing subscription of print newspapers ..” (ResearchandMarkets)