The Consequences of the Ukraine War and African Inflation
Putin's ongoing, sanguinary war of European conquest has contributed largely to the inflation that is at present ravaging the African continent.
As Vladimir Putin attempts an imperial conquest on the European continent, he is simultaneously courting the Africa, with a thousand bows and curtsies. Because African natural resources — particularly gold and diamonds — prop up the Russian economy and evade international sanctions altogether. For how can one sanction gold coming straight from the earth? It is a breathtakingly bold maneuver, considering that his ongoing, sanguinary war of European conquest contributes magnificently to the inflation that is at present ravaging the African continent.
Africa right now is in the hour of the wolf, not in the least because of Russia’s pullout of the Black Sea grain initiative. Global climate change has caused many African nations to depend, in recent years, on Ukrainian grain exports. As a result, economic strain can only be properly construed as powerfully acute on the African continent, from Cape Verde to Zimbabwe. This is not to say, however, that Russia is the sole cause of inflation in Africa. In Nigeria, for example, President Tinubu scrapped 50 years of fuel subsidies, tripling the price of gasoline. Further, a subsequent devaluation of the naira has also raised inflation. That having been said, Russia's pullout of the Black Sea initiative has further fanned the flames of inflation in Nigeria -- and across the Continent. Al Jazeera, it should be noted, is doing excellent coverage of the effects of the Russian pullout of the Black Sea initiative on Africa.
Another example from North Africa: Inflation in Egypt reached an all-time high in June, at over 35%. You read that number correctly. "Egypt, the Arab world's most populous nation, has devalued its currency by about half since March 2022 after the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed its economic vulnerabilities and prompted it to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund under a $3 billion loan programme," write Adam Makary and Aidan Lewis in Reuters. “Already mired in its worst economic plight in years, Egypt is becoming like South Africa - amidst sporadic power cuts, it is imposing load shedding,” Tweets Charles Onyango-Obbo. “These ‘big’ African nations and economies!”
As Egypt swelters, with sporadic power cuts, people are actually looting on the ground in Nigeria. Nigeria's northeastern state of Adamawa on Monday imposed a 24-hour curfew a few days ago after youths looted stores in search of food. Nigeria’s inflation has rose for the sixth month in a row in June. “We already know or can predict to a fair degree the impact the pausing of exports from that region to the rest of the world, especially East Africa and the Horn of Africa, will have on food prices,” Debisi Araba, a food policy strategist and former managing director at the African Green Revolution Forum (AGRF), told Al Jazeera.
During the course of the Ukraine War, the Black Sea initiative was a rare diplomatic “success.” Last week I wrote, by way of explanation:
Since the Black Sea Grain Initiative was brokered a year ago, almost 32.9 million metric tons of grain were exported around the world, staving off famine and weakening the double-barreled stranglehold of inflation. Grain futures, and particularly corn futures, responded by surging, dramatically this week. The UN plan, signed July 27, 2022 in Istanbul, Türkiye, ensured that Russian food and fertilizer would reach international markets, supporting the stabilization of food prices, which had been spiraling globally. It was nice while it lasted!
As if the specters of famine and inflation were not sinister enough clouds on a darkening horizon, Putin launched strikes against Odesa, one of three critical Black Sea ports that export grain and other agricultural products internationally. “Today’s decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere,” Secretary General Guterres said at the UN Headquarters in New York on Monday in the typical understatement of a diplomat. President Zelenskii, the most social media savvy world leader, was even more forceful on Twitter, writing, “About a million tons of food is stored in the ports that were attacked today.” He continued: “This is the volume that should have been delivered to consumer countries in Africa and Asia long ago.” …
The initiative helped curb inflation and famine, but now without that guardrail, the war might start affecting us all once again, in the form of food prices.
Because hurting the world is not in the interests of either Ukraine or Russia. Both sides, in fact, have spent the course of the war looking for foreign alliances to finance their positions. This makes the Russian turnaround all the more confounding. Putin, however, has always protested that Russia got the worst of the deal because of international sanctions against it as opposed to Ukraine, which immediately turns over grain sales into military expenditures.
Can Russia enforce their pullout and blockade? An interesting thing occurred yesterday, twenty-two days after the Black Sea grain initiative pullout, that may answer the question. NATO war planes “watched” as three cargo ships transported grain out of the Black Sea. “A trio of civilian cargo ships—one each from Israel and Greece plus one with Turkish-Georgian registration—ran the Russian blockade in the Black Sea on Sunday and anchored at one of Ukraine’s grain ports on the Danube Delta,” writes David Axe, for Forbes. Curious, indeed. The gamble is that Putin, in his weakened state post-mutiny, would not dare start a war with Greece, Israel, Turkey and NATO simultaneously over grain shipments that are aiming at easing global inflation. A very dangerous gamble that just might have proved that Putin, already overstretched, is militarily incapable of enforcing the blockade beyond mere bloviation.
This leads us to the tenuous situation in Niger (above). The coup in Niger augurs dangerously for stability in the region. For the Sahel, instability is an opportunity for Al Qaeda — and Wagner — to score massive victories in Africa. The ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum is the seventh (!!) military takeover in the region in less than three years. “Spanning the area from Senegal to Eritrea, situated between the Sahara to the north and the African tropics to the south, the Sahel region has long faced severe, complex security and humanitarian crises,” is how the Center for Preventive Action puts it.
Why should we care about Niger? Well, Donald Trump — ignorant ass that he is — and the Trumpists certainly don’t, despite the fact that it is a democracy, the only one in the region. But the Trumpists are neutral on democracies. And it borders Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad, all flush with jihadists, mercenaries, weapons and all sorts of thirsty evil on the make, since the fall of Gaddafi. If the United States abdicates, it cedes that part of the globe to Al Qaeda and the Wagner Group, to exploit as they will. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS, composed of 15 nations) on Sunday warned the junta to restore President Mohamed within a week. As a result, in response, Mali and Burkina Faso’s military leaders declared solidarity with the junta leaders in Niger, warning that any attack on Niger would be an attack against their own illegitimate regimes. Charmed, I’m sure.
This is a lot to process, ultimately. I understand. It is little reported upon and involves a lot of moving geopolitical parts that affect hundreds of millions of people on multiple continents not our own. Who is better qualified to deal with all of the possible eventualities? With maximal diplomacy with regional allies? With the carrot and the stick approach? President Biden and his foreign policy and national security team or a waterhead like Trump and his ragtag group of paleo-America Firsters? Can you imagine Mike Flynn navigating this thusness?
Yes, the Ukraine War and the instability that has resulted on the African continent can seem overwhelming. But President Biden’s stewardship, thus far, of Putin, of the NATO “watch planes,” of navigating the coup — not to mention his own handling of the American economy in light of this global inflation — has been superlative. I cannot even begin to imagine how a Trump administration would handle a similar series of foreign policy conflagrations. Perhaps give Ukraine to Putin and the Sahel to Al Qaeda and Wagner to share?
Because, you know, “America First.”
You’ll forgive me if I stick with Biden.
“Polling released by The New York Times and Siena College on Monday found that only 5% of respondents who get their news from Fox News believe that Trump has ‘committed serious federal crimes,’ with an overwhelming 91% saying he has not done so. Meanwhile, 83% of Fox News-watching respondents believe that after the 2020 election, Trump ‘was just exercising his right to contest the’ results.” (Oliver Darcy/Reliable Sources)
"From semiconductors and electric vehicle batteries to biotech and telecoms, Korea’s conglomerates are crucial players in sectors critical to national security and industrial strategy in both Washington and Beijing. Chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, along with battery makers LG Energy Solution, SK On and Samsung SDI, are set to receive billions of dollars in US subsidies as the Biden administration seeks to attract Korean technology and manufacturing prowess and reduce the role of China in US supply chains." (Christian Davies/FT)
“Vice Media is putting bankruptcy, and years of seeking a buyer and fresh cash, behind it, as the edgy digital news and lifestyle brand announces today it’s completed the sale to a consortium of former lenders led by Fortress Investment Group, Soros Fund Management and Monroe Capital.” (Jill Goildsmith/Deadline)
“I finally saw Barbie. I am sorry to admit that I am one of the few members of the intended audience to dislike it.” (Nina Burleigh/American Political Freakshow)
“A trio of civilian cargo ships—one each from Israel and Greece plus one with Turkish-Georgian registration—ran the Russian blockade in the Black Sea on Sunday and anchored at one of Ukraine’s grain ports on the Danube Delta.” (David Axe/Forbes)
African leaders leave Russia summit without grain deal or a path to end the war in Ukraine (APNews)
Inside Wagner’s armed uprising. (Joshua Yaffa/TNY)