President Biden does not need another primary challenger
America turns 247 tomorrow; does it make 250?
This week, the United States of America celebrates its 247th birthday. The last seven — Trump, COVID, Recession — have been particularly turbulent, but for the steady hand of President Biden, who, to his credit and wisdom, also presided over the death of American neoliberalism. But with Donald Trump leading in GOP polls, it is not altogether assured that the democratic system of government which have in many ways taken for granted will make it to an even 250. Sorry to harsh on your mellow this holiday weekend and all, dear reader, but as the summer peaks and we inch towards Labor Day, primary season is upon us.
The best bulwark against a Trump, 2.0, which could conceivably involve the death of American democracy — at least as we practice it today — is a robust President Biden. It does not help the situation that respected writers and pundits are proposing, in high profile thought-experiments, even more complex primary challenges to our current President, who actually respects democratic institutions and takes his oath of office seriously.
Jack Shafer is usually one of the sharpest media writers in the business today. And he has been so for years. That’s why it was astonishing to read his latest piece, as Politico’s senior media writer, on why President Biden needs to be primaried. Seriously primaried, like by a Governor or a Cabinet Secretary. I mean, what the what? What are the optics of a Cabinet Secretary — say Pete Buttigieg — resigning office, to challenge his or her former boss? And on what grounds? I mean, how does that not become, eo ipso, a contentious race?
In the piece, out today, Shafer brings out all the clichéd boxing metaphors available, comparing the Presidential primary process to a twelve-round exhibition fight. It would toughen the chap up, it seems to be arguing, awkwardly; put some color in the President’s cheeks, so to speak. As if a twelve round exhibition fight would not expose Biden, who narrowly won three states 44,000 votes, to a fracturing of his support. Particularly among voters of color, which the Democrat party has been hemorrhaging since the midterms. As if Donald Trump, looking more and more like the main event with every Supreme Court decision, played by Marquess of Queensberry rules, Jack Shafer, Esq.
Shafer praises the nascent Chris Christie kamikaze challenge to Trump, who will no doubt return the compliment by not sharing the debate stage with the former New Jersey Governor. Then, curiously, Shafer chides the other side of the aisle:
Democrats should have such guts. Gov. Gavin Newsom of California is already acting like the president-in-exile, proposing a new gun control constitutional amendment, working to ban gas-powered cars and threatening to arrest Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for kidnapping migrants. Like Newsom, Pete Buttigieg wears his presidential ambitions on his forehead like a bumper sticker. There’s surely not a moment that he’s not thinking about being president, so why not act on those instincts, the same ones that launched him from mid-city mayor to Transportation secretary? To mix sports metaphors, Buttigieg could be Biden’s rabbit in the primary, running so hard and so fast that Biden would pick up the pace and show the doubters his own youthful stamina. Both Newsom and Buttigieg are going to run in 2028 anyway, so why not get going now? They would be doing him a favor by toughening him up.
“Guts” notwithstanding, how, pray tell, is this a favor? In Shafer’s imaginary boxing federation, the depletion of campaign resources results in Biden getting “fighting trim.” However, Shafer is at his weakest, and quite frankly most morbid, when contemplating the President’s demise (oh, yes, he goes there). "Besides putting him in fighting trim (or not), primary adversaries would prepare us for the all too real possibility that he’s incapacitated by a stroke, seriously injured in one of his frequent falls or another bike crash, or just dies one evening," he casually remarks. And then — wait for it — the kicker: "It’s not impolite or unkind to plan for the sudden departure of any employee.” Charmed, I’m sure.
What if, most likely, a Newsom or a Whitmer or a Warnock challenge became contentious. Igniting enmity between their partisans and the President’s. Again, Biden, who narrowly won three states 44,000 votes, cannot afford to lose voters in the general election, particularly voters of color. Because some of those voters might be inclined to become fellow travelers with the quixotic Cornel West, who is going the third party route all the way until election day, 2024. Amy Walter, the Publisher and Editor in Chief of The Cook Political Report spoke to Chuck Todd early in June about the hazards of even a minimally strong Cornel West third party candidacy, factoring in Biden’s (razor) thin electoral margins. From NBC News:
Amy Walter: (Cornel West) doesn't need to get on the ballot in 50 states ... just got on WI and AZ and Georgia ... and pull one or two percent, that could be enough to make Biden's success there really tenuous.
Announcer: We all remember Ralph Nader's role in 2000
AW: — And Jill Stein, etc. Now, its different, obviously these are different candidates, its a different time. But we know how narrow those margins are going to be regardless of what the campaign ultimately looks like.
And of the No Labels party we will remain here silent…
Theoretically, if Trump were to win the nomination and then the Presidency once again, any number of anti-democratic outcomes are possible, making it nearly impossible to remove him from office. He could, for example, explode the Electoral Count Act. And without Mike Pence (and Dan Quayle) there to stop him, what would follow?
Trump could also declare a national emergency. And if you think he is not capable of such a narcissistic maneuver for the sake of “face,” then you have not been paying attention to his involvement in the insurrection. Or, to be frank, recent history. Because Trump already declared a national emergency in Winter, 2019 for his border wall (and also, to be fair, for COVID). From The Brennan Center:
In February 2019, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency to secure funding that Congress had expressly denied for the construction of a wall along the southern border. Before that declaration, most Americans were unaware that a vast set of laws gives the president greatly enhanced powers during emergencies. The Brennan Center, building on previous research, has identified 135 statutory powers that may become available to the president when he declares a national emergency, including the power President Trump invoked to help build the wall (10 U.S.C. 2808 (a)). An additional 13 statutory powers become available when a national emergency is declared by Congress.
But let me be clear. It is not that I am against any challenge to President Biden. That, too, is undemocratic. But Biden already has several challenges from the left, including RFK, Jr, who has a solid chance at winning New Hampshire. Then there is New Age writer Marianne Williamson, who also ran in 2020 and is polling at under 6% as well as the aforementioned Cornel West, former Harvard Professor, running as a third-party candidate on the far, far left. There are clearly choices to the left of Biden, for those perennially unsatisfied with his job performance. I find these candidacies stupid and even, quite frankly, dangerous (I have written as much on this platform) — but I am not advocating for the suppression of any one of them.
They could lead, ultimately, to the second Presidency of Donald Trump. And the possibility of elections and primary challenges after a Trump Presidency, 2.0 is a real and troubling question. For remember, Trump, like the sulky man-boy that he is, has yet to even acknowledge that he lost in 2020. As a writer who has made a study of Trump’s particular mind-disease for nearly two decades, I find it hard to believe that on January 20, 2025, when he is Constitutionally mandated to leave office after two terms, he will relinquish the reins of power.
And so, in fine, what do we have to lose? Just our democracy, ladies and gentlemen of the jury.
Moving On to Adversity-Based Affirmative Action (Paul Starr/TAP)
How Europe’s far right is marching steadily into the mainstream (Guardian)
An oral history of PAPER magazine. (NYT)
New York City wrongly imprisoned Yusef Salaam. Then it elected him. (David Weigel/semafor)