The Republican Party that once upon a time successfully prosecuted the American Civil War is now firmly under the control of Donald Trump, after his 54-43 victory over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire last night. His victory was decisive, if not as edifying as his winnings in the Evangelical-heavy Iowa Caucus earlier, where he easily exceeded Bob Dole’s nearly 13-percentage-point victory record in 1988.
Earlier in the week, Governor DeSantis and Trump exchanged pant grunts — a formal signal of submission in the primate kingdom — which must have been quite satisfying for the former President. After all, his favorite recreational activities are the public humiliation of his enemies, throwing his feces at the media and unprotected sex. “He became the first Republican in a truly contested race since Gerald Ford in 1976 to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in the same nominating season, and neither early state was particularly close,” writes Kyle Kondik for Center for American politics. Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, however, wasn’t quite the crushing “Iowa-level” victory that the former President had predicted. The 11-point margin, though impressive, was not the highlight of the evening. It was sort of expected because it was assumed after all that DeSantis’s votes after dropping out of the race would move to the former President.
image via StatusKuo
In fact, the real winner of the evening was President Biden. Though not formally on the ticket in New Hampshire, “Amtrak Joe” managed to crush his opponent — someone called Dean Phillips — by some 40 points. And by write-in besides, after not campaigning in the state, suggesting a Herculean organization in the state. This news, as expected, got overlooked largely by mainstream media. But, more to the point, Haley’s domination of the independents and Democrat vote in the state augurs well in the general election for Biden, particularly because New Hampshire is a swing-state not necessarily Trumpish overall. Some of Haley’s vote will almost certainly gravitate towards the President. “The Granite State, you’ll remember, is decidedly not Trump country,” I wrote on January 11th, laying out the electoral plusses for Team Blue:
In 2016, Trump lost to Hillary in the general with 47.25%, by a 0.4% margin or by 2,736 votes; in 2020, Biden dramatically expanded Clinton's 2016 lead to 59,267 votes (7.35%), largely with the help of white women and unmarried women voters. And only three days ago, the President, despite challenging poll numbers across the board, still beats the golf pants off of Donald J. Trump.
President Biden’s win on the Democrat side in New Hampshire is worth examining in some detail. The primary did not include Cornel West or RFK, Jr, who are running as independent candidates who will resurface in the summer. But it was still otherwise impressive. “President Biden is on track to win more votes in New Hampshire as a write-in candidate than Barack Obama did when he ran for re-election in 2012 — and Obama ran unopposed and was on the ballot then,” Tweeted Kyle Griffin. I’m sure, however, the New York Times will find some way to pull a negative headline out of that.
What happened to Nikki Haley? She learned, all too late, that there are not enough votes to be taken away from other candidates to beat Trump. The former President was essentially running an incumbent campaign with all the advantages thereabouts (cash; organization; endorsements). It was only in the last few days of the campaign that Haley unleashed fully against Trump, with nothing left to lose. She signaled this first by formally taking her name out of contention for a theoretical Vice Presidency, something that she would never have gotten anyway after having the temerity of challenging Trump after serving in his administration. Chris Christie had demanded haley take herself out of contention for running mate as the cost of getting his endorsement. Ultimately, however, the Christie endorsement never happened, leaving Haley for roadkill.
We cannot fail to mention Trump’s racism, which was at play here — — how could it not — on the day of the election. Like countless brutal primary Republican battles before, this one involved dogwhistles appealing to the worst, tribal impulses of voters in the very last moment. “(Governor) Haley is the daughter of Indian immigrants and was born Nimarata Nikki Randhawa. She took her husband Michael Haley’s last name after they married,” Kate Sullivan of CNN writes. “Trump misspelled Nimarata as ‘Nimrada’ as he attacked her in a new post on his social media platform Truth Social.” Just a little last minute primary day reminder to the voters!
It is instructive to examine a little at the dying last gasps of Nikki Haley’s campaign. In those sad, brutish and short last days, Haley went on full-on attack mode against Trump (finally). It was lovely and, no doubt, will merit much examination by BidenWorld. Haley painted, in fine, a remarkable portrait of a chaos candidate with a broken brain. This is one of the many reasons why Trump will never, ever pick her as his running mate. She dared to question the workings of his fascist, authoritarian, right-ring bigot brain and what it would do as head of our Executive Branch. I mean, how dare she!
Does Trump have a “broken brain”? Trump did not liberate himself much from the framing of Haley’s exquisite portrait by his ranting, unscripted victory speech. It fed perfectly the narrative that yes, in fact, the former President might have a broken — or at least fevered, bigoted, democracy-killing — brain. “We don't forget -- you can never forget history, because if you forget, you never -- you never recover from it, and you repeat, you repeat. And we're not going to repeat,” is how Trump mangled the famous quote by George Santayana about learning from History. “What a waste it is to lose one’s mind,” said the great Public Philosopher J. Danforth Quayle. Or not to have a mind is being very wasteful. How true that is, dear reader.
Last but not least: All three last candidates standing — Trump, DeSantis and Haley — as the primaries approached, fired shots at Fox, which is perhaps hinting at the new trajectory within the Republican Party. A new media order, so to speak. What is this new trajectory of the Republican Party? Less Murdoch; more Trump — with the President in control of everything. Including the media coverage of him, which is new, but very on-brand for an authoritarian manqué and his world order. Trump, to be sure, learned from the mistakes of Trump 1.0. Which is not to suggest that Trump is smart, per se, but he has a reptile intelligence about him, particularly with regards to what he can and cannot do. He is very committed to maximum leverage as President, should he win another term. Hoe else to extinguish democracy in its sleep?
In the first administrative iteration of Trump, he was unprepared — in fact, he did not even think he was going to win the Presidency. He had no victory speech prepared. Trump was, in many ways, at the mercy of the coverage of the Murdoch media during 1.0. Both Murdoch and Trump benefitted from this relationship, before Murdoch exited stage right. Trump’s Vice President in 1.0 had an independent streak and certified Joe Biden’s 2020 win. Trump’s Vice President 2.0 will be a different kettle of fish altogether. Trump’s 2024 Vice President will be an extension of his will — like a spineless, soulless Elise Stefanik, Harvard ‘06. Or maybe Vivek? Or Tucker? And Trump will have alternative media options, other than Fox, including Truth Social and the grottier white supremacist spaces on web3, which Tucker is in the process of learning and Vivek will soon after follow.
That is, of course, if — a big if — Trump wins. Lord help us if that is the case.
“Israel emerged as one of the world’s leading jailers of journalists following the October 7 start of the Israel-Gaza war, the Committee to Protect Journalists’ 2023 prison census has found. Israel ranked sixth – tied with Iran – behind China, Myanmar, Belarus, Russia, and Vietnam, respectively. Overall, CPJ documented 320 journalists behind bars on the census date of December 1, 2023. The number was the second-highest recorded by CPJ since the census began in 1992 – a disturbing barometer of entrenched authoritarianism and the vitriol of governments determined to smother independent voices. Some governments go a step further, using transnational repression to threaten and harass reporters beyond their own borders. Moscow’s intimidatory actions included a spate of arrest warrants for Russian journalists living in other countries; Ethiopia forced the return of an exiled journalist to face terrorism charges after having him arrested in neighboring Djibouti. CPJ’s research also shows that more than half – 168 – listed in the census face false news and anti-state charges such as terrorism in retaliation for their critical coverage.” (Arlene Getz/CPJ)
“Aside from a vigorous debate on aid to Ukraine (an issue on which Haley has shined compared to the neo-isolationism of Trump and DeSantis), it is hard to find a glimmer of substance to the GOP race unless you somehow care who uses which bathroom. As a result, the coverage has mostly revolved around polls and vaporous theories of who has momentum (what George H.W. Bush called the ‘Big Mo’ back in 1980). And an embarrassing amount of it has been dead wrong. With DeSantis hoisting the white flag on the eve of Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary (his ‘war against woke’ put everyone to sleep), it is sobering to remember that a year ago the Florida governor was beguiling the media while Trump was widely depicted as yesterday’s man in his never-ending vindication tour. Premature horse-race numbers helped frame this wrongheaded narrative. A respected national poll by the Marquette University Law School, released almost exactly a year ago, found DeSantis beating Trump 62–38 among Republicans. In the first primary state, according to a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, DeSantis had a 12-point edge over Trump. While other polls a year ago this week showed Trump retaking the lead, Nikki Haley never registered more than 3 percent in any of them.” (Walter Shapiro/TNR)
“After eight months of fighting, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — a paramilitary group that grew out of the Janjaweed’s genocidal rampage in Darfur — started the year with a clear advantage over the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). In particular, the overrun of Wad Madani in December set in motion a new phase in the conflict. The city’s fall reminded everyone in areas still under SAF control of their vulnerability to the RSF’s violence and pillaging. In part to deflect criticism directed at its leadership, the SAF tacitly green-lit a civilianization of the conflict via the creation of ‘ethnic and communal militias’ throughout the country.” (Ken Opalo/The Africanist Perspective)
“Much of India came to a standstill on Jan. 22, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi consecrated a temple in the northern city of Ayodhya commemorating Rama, a warrior-king worshipped by Hindus as a god. Schools, colleges, and offices closed and central government offices gave a half-day off to all employees. Some expectant parents even cajoled obstetricians to schedule cesarean sections on the day so that their children are born at the auspicious moment coinciding with the temple’s opening. Such a public display of religiosity by the Indian government and its leadership may seem peculiar, particularly to those who cherish secularism. But India moved away from the state’s traditional interpretation of secularism a decade ago, when Modi led the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power. With the next national elections only a few months away, Modi has choreographed the Ram temple consecration to consolidate his Hindu vote (about 80 percent of the country’s population is Hindu). The political intent is clear: Cutouts of Modi grace lampposts on the airport road in Ayodhya, with similar images of Rama added almost as an afterthought. In an audio message on social media this month, Modi said, ‘God has made me an instrument to represent all the people of India.’ The ongoing construction of Ram Mandir is very controversial in India. From the early 16th century until 1992, a mosque known as Babri Masjid stood on the site—built during the time of the emperor Babur, the first Mughal to rule India. Many Hindus say that Babur destroyed a temple honoring Rama that previously stood on the land, which they believe is Rama’s birthplace. In the 1980s, Hindu activists began a movement to reclaim the site and build a temple there. In December 1992, they razed the mosque, an act that shocked the nation.” (Salil Tripathi/FP)
“It read like a scene out of ‘Barbie’ itself. When the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominations Tuesday morning for the 96th annual Oscars, both Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie were dealt a shocking snub in the best director and best actress categories, respectively. Meanwhile, as if to pour salt on the wound, Ryan Gosling secured a thumbs up in the best supporting actor category for his role as Ken, the patriarchy-obsessed and vapid sidekick in the year's biggest blockbuster. The move by the Academy, which is no stranger to controversy and has faced a torrent of criticism in recent years over issues related to diversity, left a fair share of observers astonished and shaking their heads. It was widely expected that Gerwig, in particular, would get a nod for best director, given that she was the creative force behind the critically-acclaimed billion-dollar sensation, which the academy itself recognized by nominating it for best picture. To many, the snubbing of the pair further validated the film's message about how difficult it can be for women to succeed in — and be recognized for — their contributions in a society saturated by sexism.” (Oliver Darcy/Reliable Sources)