In what multiverse does Mike Pence get the nomination?
or, what is the rationale for a Mike Pence candidacy?
Mike Pence spent the better part of the Trump Presidency projecting a mix of awe and loyalty towards the top of the ticket. With lips tightly pursed into the form of the pucker of a cats ass and eyes dewy with reverence at playing a part in History, Pence exemplified beta helpmate to Trump’s paleo-fascist project with what can only be properly construed as élan. Henceforth we shall call this performance “Resting Pence Face.” The former Vice President elected to present himself this way, stalwart nationalist Christian soldier, while standing shoulder to shoulder with his ticket mate, for four years. But was it all for naught?
What, pray tell, exactly is the rationale for a Pence candidacy at present? And, is there even one? For all his loyalty, Pence is a distant third at best in most national polls. It seems like his primary rationale — that it is his turn, as former Vice President — leans upon the previous American political order. In the “before times” — i.e. before COVID; before Trump — a former legislator would become a Vice President and then it would become his, always “his,” turn. This is what happened in the case of George HW Bush and Al Gore, Establishmentarians from old families who slowly worked their way up the greasy pole of American politics to become the frontrunners of their respective parties. Good times, no?
The pendulum swings. Particularly within the Republican Party. Trump, like it or not, dramatically altered the old machinery of nomination. The Trump 2016 campaign was the ticket that exploded. It exploded the notion that a modern Presidential candidate had to have political experience; it exploded the notion that a modern Presidential candidate could not be explicitly racist and misogynistic. It also exploded the notion that Christian nationalists ultimately vote for candidates that are at least performative Christians. Trump, of course, could not be bothered to even pretend that he adhered to any discernible Christian philosophy or, for that matter, that he actually values military service. “Why should I go to that cemetery?” Trump asked, before cancelling a visit to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery near Paris in 2018. “It’s filled with losers.” Hear that sound? That was the ticket exploding.
Which brings us to the natter of Mike Pence. Pence is gambling that there is some portion of the conservative electorate that still believes in postwar American values. In nostalgia and Norman Rockwell paintings and sodas jerks and sports without the steroids. That he served “shoulder-to-shoulder” with Trump as his long-suffering political spouse is his rationale for being next in line in the party hierarchy. That he ultimately held the line on the Constitution on January 6th is how he sees himself as different, eo ipso, from the other climbers. It is almost heartbreakingly quaint that Pence believes that conservatism, as a political philosophy, is still a major force within the Republican Party. Does anyone have the courage to tell Pence that this is no longer the case? Does anyone have the courage to tell Pence that he himself, as a participant in the 2016 ticket, is partially responsible for the old order’s annihilation? Does anyone have the heartfelt empathy to tell Pence, sotto voce, that he is better suited at present to the Lincoln Project, the new natural politico-philosophical home of American conservatism in exile? Such is the infinite stubbornness of the former Indiana Governor and Hoosier talk radio host.
Granted, it is early in the campaign. Things could conceivably change. But with unfavorables above 50%, according to 538, and favorables in the mid-30s, you can probably gag his Presidential campaign with a fork. It is pretty much done. Harley Davidson “roast and ride” photo ops notwithstanding (see above), Pence, at best, can only hope for a fraction of the evangelical vote and naught else. For which he will be competing against his former boss, Senator Tim Scott, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. And if the Faith & Freedom Conference is any sort of bellwether, it looks as if Trump, once again, is going to get a lion’s share of that electorate, leaving Pence, Scott, Haley and DeSantis to fight over what falls from their master’s table. Once again, Trump will probably get a “mulligan” from Christian conservatives on his pagan lifestyle. Well, the reasoning goes, he’s a savage beast, for sure, but at least he gave us a majority on the Supreme Court.
Pence, however, remains undeterred in what he believes is God’s plan for America. Which, mirable dictu!, just happens to coincide with his greatest ambition. And yet, the former Vice has not been willing to distinguish himself completely from Trump. Pence waivers — on pardoning Trump; on law and order; on Hunter Biden — from becoming a self-sustaining political entity. He is always and in everything hugging the political shore that is Donald J. Trump instead of sailing the open sea. And so we are left with a Pence that is still largely defined by the former POTUS. But why vote for a Pence largely defined by Trump when the voters can vote for the real thing? That, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, is the question.
Further, who, in fine, is actually even a Pence supporter? Does Pence — a former Vice President and distant third — even have a political base within the Republican Party? In a field that may ultimately contain thirteen candidates, Pence appears only capable of gaining a percentage of the evangelicals; he has not distinguished himself in any other precinct in the Republican landscape. It is, to be sure, poor form when the candidate cannot clearly articulate a picture of his own movement, as the Sunday Chuck Todd interview reveals. From Corbin Bollies of The Daily Beast:
In an interview with Meet the Press that aired Sunday, the former vice president seemed flummoxed when asked by moderator Chuck Todd about who the ideal Pence supporter was—and how they differentiated from a Trump supporter.
“Well, look, I think that the people around the country, as I’ve traveled the last two years, have had, in the main, very humbling views about me and my family,” he told Todd. “I’ve been stopped in airports and grocery stores and gas stations by Americans of every political persuasion who thank me for my service to the country—and particularly thanked me for the stand that I took on that tragic day.”
What does that even mean? Its like “broad shoulders” and “decisive action.” Words, words, words.
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