American Horror Story: What if President Biden Replaced Kamala Harris?
Taking the Beltway speculation to its horrific conclusion
There is a certain type of Beltway chronicler —usually male, usually white, often conservative — that enjoys engaging in eccentric, improbable, political “What ifs.” By which I mean speculation of the sort that begets Washington chatter and, quite frankly, not much else. As in — What if President Biden Replaced Vice President Kamala Harris on the ticket in 2024? Does this thought not make you oscillate uncomfortably?
It is not a new political phenomenon, however. David Faris at Slate does a good job relaying the recent history of this late-summer/early Autumn quadrennial sport:
“Maybe the president should dump the veep” is a Beltway parlor game as old as time. Or at least as old as the writers doing the speculating. There were calls for George H.W. Bush to replace Dan Quayle with Colin Powell in 1992, and gossip that George W. Bush would toss the gruff Dick Cheney overboard in 2004. Before the 2012 election, some thought that Barack Obama, reeling from his historic “sh ellacking” in the 2010 midterms, should eighty-six then–Vice President Biden and replace him with his 2008 rival, Hillary Clinton. In 2019, D.C. was rife with rumors that Mike Pence would be sacked as Trump’s running mate for former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
But — in the interest of the horror genre, which is greatly disrespected in literature — let’s indulge these usually white, usually male beltway thinkers in a spot of post-apocalyptic speculation. Lets carry this little thought experiment beyond Josh Barro’s feeble and naive premise, entirely disembodied from the historic relationship between African-American women and the Democrat party, to its truly terrifying conclusion. And that conclusion, which President Biden is acutely aware of, is the election of Donald Trump to his second Presidential term.
The President knows this politically because he is, as Nixon used to say, “in the arena.” He is in the actual gladiatorial fundament, as opposed to spit-balling from the margins. Biden is beating back the tentacles of authoritarianism, white supremacy and democratic backsliding from the moment he wakes up until the moment he goes to bed. He is, in other words, existentially aware of the fragility of his administration’s ability to get things done, his coalition and the democracy he was elected to protect.
And yet the chatter persist in the drawing rooms. Of which I wrote in July:
For some time now I have been trying to figure out why Democrat elites have such a dislike of the Vice President. The dislike, in some quarters, is at times almost visceral. James Carville in the War Room podcast alluded, darkly that the chatter inside Democrat party circles is more than worried. Biden, clearly, has doubled down on his running mate. He is not going to ditch Harris, otherwise he would probably lose a significant portion of the African-American vote to Cornel West in the general and thus lose the Presidency altogether. But political and cultural elites, from places as far flung as The Boston Globe and the Times to continue to cavil in public.
And cavil they still do now, despite the fact that in 2020, African-American voters remained overwhelmingly loyal to the Democratic Party, voting 92%-8% for Biden. What does a “bro” like Josh Barro expect would happen to that level of loyalty if Biden were to replace his running mate with Gretchen Whitmer? Does Whitmer bridge the falloff? And, with what demographic? Does the falloff leave the Democrat party forever for Cornel’s project? Or does it return at a later date? And —Why even take that risk?
First off, as I alluded to above, the replacement of Kamala Harris would be a steroid injection to the fledgling and quixotic Cornel West third party campaign. Even if, say, Biden were to replace her with Senator Raphael Warnock (unlikely), or Mayor Karen Bass, who Harris actually swore in (even more likely). Senator Warnock is a freshman Senator from the crucial state of Georgia. Strike one and strike two. Why move this rising political star to prime time so early in the game and risk losing the seat and, possibly, the slim Senate Majority? And Mayor Bass, also a rookie, who recently increased the LAPD’s budget by nearly $400 billion by 2027, could conceivably fracture Biden’s hard won Progressive coalition. Besides, when did a rookie big-city Mayor ever make a bang-on placement on a national ticket? So, in fine, what we are saying — Barro is actually doing this out loud — is that Joe Biden should replace Kamala Harris, the first Asian and African-American woman running mate with a white candidate. Good luck on that, sweet pea!
Second, Vice President Harris has proven herself a powerhouse at fundraising in the Asian-American community Kamala Harris raised $2 million in 24 hours after her Democrat primary debate and even more when she joined the Biden team. The Biden-Harris ticket, in turn, elevated the concerns of the AA and NHPI communities to the forefront of his administration’s priorities. This was a significant turn of affairs considering that his predecessor popped-off “Kung Flu” jokes with characteristic insouciance at the height of COVID lockdowns as racial violence against people of Asian descent was at stratospheric levels. By August 2021, more than 9,000 reported anti-Asian incidents had been reported. Would that level of Asian-American support remain? More than likely it would drop somewhat.
Third, Vice President Harris was a part of President Biden’s push — at the end of the 2020 election cycle — to maximize Asian-American support. “In October, the Biden campaign launched a get-out-the-vote effort targeting the electorate through local ethnic media in 16 key states, as well as nationally,” Kimmie Yam of NBC News reported. “In addition to a television spot titled ‘Stand Together,’ which prominently featured Harris, who is of Indian descent, the campaign released digital, radio and print ads.” The Asian-American political participation rate was a bit higher in 2020 than 2016, perhaps because of Trump’s anti-Asian COVID rhetoric. But one cannot minimize the impact of Kamala Harris, the first African-American and — more importantly here — Asia-American woman ever on the ticket. Asian-Americans — as well as African-Americans — it cannot be understated here provided the President the margins he needed to win in Georgia. Removing Kamala Harris from the ticket could imperil Georgia.
And who in this apocalyptic, dystopian beltway Commentariat alternate reality would replace the Vice President? Eric Levitz of Intelligencer names Senator Warnock, as well as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.). I mentioned earlier the grave peril of putting Warnock’s seat up so soon after so much effort by the party in a newly empurpled state. But Warnock notwithstanding, none of these potential Harris replacements — Whitmer, Duckworth or Underwood — could bring a new state to the ticket. And none of those three could offset the loss of African-American and Asian-American votes that would ensue from the fallout of the betrayal of Harris. Roger Stone and Steve Bannon would probably prepare “walking around money” fundraising campaigns to suppress the black vote.
There are three other names sometimes buzzed about as possible-hypothetical Harris replacements. All have much to gain, if they are patient and wait their turn. None of them seem likely to try to replace the Vice President, frankly. Governor Gavin Newsom, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Kentucky Governor Beshear. These are three heavy-hitters in the party and have magnificent futures, all three. I have nothing negative to say about any of them, except that they are all young and have a bit more to do before going national. And as this will be Joe Biden’s last rodeo, all three have a very good chance to make it to the national ticket in the next election cycle — so, why risk party enmity and blame for causing the ticket to explode? Gavin Newsom, who has been an effective surrogate for Biden of late, is clearly positioning himself for 2028 (or, in the case of a health issue, to replace Biden in ‘24). Whatever was behind his ubiquitous on-camera cable presence during the Spring and Summer, he appears to have been subsumed back into the party, securely behind his President.
Gina Raimondo, a former governor of Rhode Island (popular) and founder of a venture capital fund (not so popular in Democrat circles), could become the first woman President of the United States. But she has a lot of work to do yet, standing up to China on the world stage in defense of American industrial interests. She has had a mixed record so far; but it is early in the game, as of yet and she is highly talented. Her experience in the business world, running a state and on the international stage — as well as her experience working at housing and poverty clinics during college — makes for an interesting politician. If she can effectively communicate these unusually varied experiences to the public at large, she has a very high probability of ending up somewhere on the ticket in’28.
Finally, Governor Beshear is simply too valuable to the Democrats in Kentucky right now than in Washington. For one, it is not inconceivable that Beshear — a rare Democrat Governor of deep red Kentucky — is in the position of possibly appointing Mitch McConnell’s replacement, should the Majority Leader’s health fail. “In March 2021, Kentucky's GOP-led Legislature voted to override Beshear's veto of legislation McConnell had backed restricting the governor's ability to fill a vacancy if one of the state's U.S. senators dies or leaves office early,” Nick Reynolds wrote for Newsweek. And then came McConnell’s two very public health episodes. Reynolds continued, curiously:
After McConnell's latest episode, however, some have openly questioned whether Beshear could defy the state GOP and appoint a replacement from within the Democratic Party. In interviews with the Lexington Herald-Leader Wednesday, several attorneys previously affiliated with the Kentucky Democratic Party suggested Beshear could decide to name a Democrat to fill the seat, potentially prompting a lawsuit challenging the legality of the 2021 law.
If Beshear can turn Kentucky purple, he will be at the top of the list for ‘28.
So, Beshear, Raimondo and Newsom are all rising stars. As is Governor Whitmer of Michigan. President Biden knows this and has given each their time in the sun — particularly Newsom, whose huge political ambitions are sometimes borborygmic. But even Newsom knows that Biden is the nominee — and his running mate is Kamala Harris. And so — dare I say it? — do most of the political commentariat, grasping for a controversial story at the beginning of the autumn, as the Republican side of the aisle appears to be a non-contest, and daily deadlines loom. Trump is nearly 50% ahead of his nearest competitor, Ron DeSantis, whose fundraising burn rate can only be properly construed as “unsustainable.” We will not entertain the possibility that all this Autumn Commentariat anti Harris friction-making has anything to do with the fact that the Republican side of the race is basically all but wrapped up? Manufactured drama? Heaven forfend!
In the meantime, wake me up when September ends …
“The recent calls for Biden to step aside are seen internally as just the latest example of elite Democrats underestimating Biden.” (Axios)
“U.S. authorities are investigating cases of Russian oligarchs evading sanctions by hiding assets in South Dakota trusts, an Internal Revenue Service agent told South Dakota Public Broadcasting. In 2021, ICIJ’s Pandora Papers investigation revealed the state had become a financial secrecy hub in the United States, due to a burgeoning trust industry courting millionaire and billionaire clients by promising privacy and wealth protection rivaling overseas tax havens. Special agent Tom Larson told SDPB that the agency had a team dedicated to uncovering assets belonging to sanctioned individuals stashing wealth in trusts through shell companies. ‘We’ve found that some of that stuff is being held in trust in South Dakota,’ Larson told SDPB.” (Eve Sampson/ICIJ)
“In 2001, Public Affairs was approached on behalf of several of the most prominent American China scholars about publishing a compilation of secret top-tier documents describing the decision to use maximum force to end the democracy protests in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. The official who brought them out of the country would remain anonymous. The scholars led by Columbia Professor Andrew Nathan were confident of their veracity — and to publish the book, PublicAffairs surrounded the papers with explanations of the vetting process. Publication was global front-page news and the ‘compiler’ as we called him was featured in shadows on 60 Minutes. Our mutual friend Leslie Gelb (another remarkable gent in our professional cohort) was the (Council of Foreign Relations) President and knew that there major members of his board with the kind of business interests in the emerging China that could be impacted by its revelations. Hoge, Gelb and I suspended our norms of conviviality to reach the decision to publish.” (Peter Osnos)
"Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi said Tuesday that his country will never give up its right “to have peaceful nuclear energy” and urged the United States ‘to demonstrate in a verifiable fashion’ that it wants to return to the 2015 nuclear deal. Addressing the annual high-level meeting of the U.N. General Assembly, Raisi said the American withdrawal from the deal trampled on U.S. commitments and was ‘an inappropriate response’ to Iran’s fulfillment of its commitments. Then-President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the accord in 2018, restoring crippling sanctions. Iran began breaking the terms a year later and formal talks in Vienna to try to restart the deal collapsed in August 2022.” (APNews)
“Speaking to business leaders and youth, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo sought to assure Nigerians that President Joe Biden’s primary interest in their country was to be a partner in strengthening its economy. Adeyemo, who is the highest-ranking Africa-born official in the Biden administration, told an audience at the Lagos Business School on Monday that the U.S. believes an economically successful Nigeria is ‘important to the region, the continent, and the global economy.’ He praised Nigerian president Bola Tinubu for ‘bold and difficult reforms’ that have included ending a longstanding petrol subsidy and unifying forex rates, and for working with the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force on initiatives against money laundering and terrorism financing. Tinubu touted those policy moves during his first address to the United Nations General Assembly a day later, also arguing that governments, global institutions and corporations should prioritize African development and bemoaning ‘broken promises, unfair treatment and outright exploitation from abroad.’” (Alexander Onukwue/semfor)
“In August 2022, the IDF reported there had been a ‘significant rise’ in detected attempts to smuggle weapons and drugs into Israel from Jordan and Egypt, pointing to the more than 300 weapons and 2,150 kilograms of various drugs seized since the beginning of the year.1 In late 2022, an Israeli official confirmed to the authors that detected smuggling attempts across Israel’s borders had increased in recent years.2 As will be outlined, a database maintained by the authors finds that detected smuggling attempts into Israel rose between early 2021 and early 2023. Does this mean that smuggling at Israel’s borders is becoming a greater challenge? Israeli, Jordanian, and Egyptian officials interviewed by the authors independently reported that it has, both in terms of an increase in known smuggling cases and in the complexity of smuggling operations and the dangers of addressing the challenge.” (Matt Levitt and Lauren von Thaden/CTC at West Point)