Today’s fascinating longread from the FT revealed a lot about the Wagner Group in Africa. Russia’s side-hustles in Africa are the most underreported story, as I have said for some time now. “African leaders, fearful of the growing influence on the continent of The Wagner Group will conspire, in private, on ways to collectively thwart the mercenary organization’s advance,” I predicted last December’s end. That hasn’t happened — yet — but the article, by David Pilling in Dzanga-Sangha and Andres Schipani in Bangui, Central African Republic, chronicles that mercenary outfits treacherous advance at breakneck speed across the Continent.
There are quite a few interesting points that the article makes. One — Russia, cut off financially by and from the West for its invasion of the Ukraine, is looking towards Africa for financing the war. This implies at least that the sanctions, though not airtight (see: Asia), are having something of their desired effect. “There are signs that Western controls that took effect in December — an embargo on most sales to Europe, and the Group of 7 nations’ price cap on Russian crude sold to other nations — are beginning to have a deep impact on energy earnings,” write Anatoly Kurmanaev and Stanley Reed in the New York Times. Putin is searching for alternate avenues to finance his war and his infinitely expanding ambitions. Putin’s ambitions, unfortunately, have yet to exceed his grasp.
Two: Russian soft power. That Russian is now a compulsory language at Universities in the Central African Republic is just one of the many surreal items in this #longread. Non-African languages taught in African schools are a clear example of expanding soft power. There is Francophone Africa; there is Anglophone Africa; and now — are we on the verge of Russophone Africa? From the FT:
(Russia) donated $6,000 to build a school classroom where 60 children, all orphans from the country’s civil war, receive basic Russian language classes. Several small children recently sat before a blackboard repeating “do svidaniya, papa; do svidaniya, maman”, while others wrote “spassiva” on personal chalkboards. The Russian influences at the cathedral are more than just an exercise in cultural outreach: they are part of the growing influence that Moscow now wields over the political and economic life of CAR, one of the world’s poorest and weakest states.
Language as a metaphor for influence. And Russia, clearly, is expanding its soft power reach. How else is one to explain SecState Anthony Blinken playing catch-up across the Continent to the Machiavellian Sergei Lavrov, from Egypt to South Sudan, to Eritrea from South Africa. Further, South Africa’s neutrality on the Ukraine vote at the United Nations is getting darker. The country, which has a long history with Russia, is doubling down on its partnership as a BRICS nation. From Doug Bandow of Responsible Statecraft:
For the U.S. and Europe, opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a moral crusade. However, to the shock of Western leaders, the Global South — bigger in population and growing in economic strength — has rejected the West’s entreaties to join the battle.
The allies’ sanctimony holds little attraction in capitals bullied by Western governments. South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor has claimed that planned military exercises with both Russia and China
from Feb 17-24 off the coast of her country were the “natural course of relations” with “friends,” in obvious contrast to joining Washington and Brussels against Moscow militarily.South African officials now say they want to be neutral on Ukraine, and have even talked about serving as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv.
Indeed, Pandor indicated that Pretoria no longer urges a unilateral Russian withdrawal, a position that would be “quite simplistic and infantile, given the massive transfer of arms [to Ukraine] … and all that has occurred [since].”
And it is a shock. Who would have thought that the United States would be remembered in so many African nations for its “white mischief” with the CIA in the 70s and 80s and not for its enduring friendship with Nelson Mandela. But here we are, post-Mandela. One of the failures of Blinken in Africa — hopefully corrected by Biden in his upcoming visit — is the inability to distinguish the United States in the minds of the African intelligentsia from the European colonizers. Just a suggestion, but perhaps a continental visit by Kamala Harris, the first African-American woman Vice President of the United States, might enhance our soft power. Just spitballing here.
The jockeying for influence has even affected Libya, which shares a dubious history with the Reagan administration. “The United States has previously said it is worried about the role played by Russia in Libya's conflict, and fears continued instability in the OPEC member could impact global energy supply and give space to Islamist militant groups,” reports Reuters. “Moscow backed Haftar's forces during the war in 2019-2020, with the Russian private military contractor Wagner deploying up to 1,200 troops in Libya, according to a 2020 report by U.N. experts.” And even Barack Obama told the BBC that failing to prepare for the aftermath of Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi’s ouster and death was the worst mistake of his presidency. Suffice it to say that Putin and Lavrov have fertile anti-American grounds to plough.
(image via FT)
The third takeaway from the article is that the line between soft and hard power sometimes blurs. “Russophone Africa” — or, rather, the Central African Republic — moving to make Bitcoin a currency seemed, at first, a head-scratching financial move. That is, until the FT put it into perspective. “(CAR President Faustin-Archange) Touadéra has introduced Russian as a compulsory language at universities, alongside Sango and French,” write Pilling and Schipani. “In May, CAR became only the second country after El Salvador to make bitcoin an official currency, a move — in a country with only 10 per cent internet penetration — that analysts suspect provides a way of bypassing financial sanctions against Russia.” Wow! I didn’t have Bitcoin as a way to bypass financial sanctions on my Ukraine War BINGO card.
And then there is such a thing as soft power through hard power weapons sales. Samuel Ramani (see above) is the author of the first book on Russia’s post-Cold War foreign policy towards Africa. He tells Stephen Williams of African Business:
The Global South’s growing alienation from US and European foreign policy diktats provides Russia with a durable soft power foundation, and will ensure that Africa does not isolate Moscow, but consignment to virtual great power status remains a virtual certainty. Given these limitations, the story of Russia’s post-Communist policy towards Africa is one of an incremental resurgence that culminates in unfulfilled promises and foiled dreams.
This brings up an excellent and largely unreported fact — the supply chain disruptions from the Ukraine war are disproportionately affecting African grain imports. To their credit, Eastern European nations like Hungary are punching far above their weight class in helping to alleviate the suffering from supply chain effects of the war in Africa. In light of this fact, perhaps the United States might want to consider a larger contribution, in the name of soft power, to the “Grain From Ukraine” initiative. Some interesting (and sobering) statistics from FoodIngredientsFirst, a newsletter in the international food industry:
This January, 759,000 metric tons of wheat were shipped through the food corridors. However, only 121,000 were sent to African ports.
In total, 675 ships have sailed from Ukrainian ports with 18.4 million metric tons of food. The share of Europe is 7.5 million metric tons, followed by Asia (5.1 million), the Middle East (3.4 million) and Africa (2.3 million).
12.5% of the food corridor food exports have gone to Africa so far, unchanged from the 13% of the share of exports that the continent had at the end of November). Some countries in the continent are in a severe food security crisis – Zimbabwe experienced a 285.2% inflation of food prices in December, for example.
Finally, the clearest form of Russian hard power on the continent is the lengthening shadow of the Wagner Group. Afro-Surrealism abounds in the image of Nemes Tarino, a 33-year old Tanzanian exchange student who died in the Ukraine. After serving a seven year sentence for an undisclosed “crime,” Tarino was “conscripted” to fight for the Wagner Group in the Ukraine. Imagine the incredible brutality of a Tanzanian man fighting in a war in Ukraine on the side of a Russian invading force in the winter. Now imagine the pain of his Tanzanian family, receiving his remains at the Julius Nyerere International Airport in Dar es Salaam. If only that would factor into the “soft power” of Russia on the African continent …
I’m sure Vladimir Putin sends his butcher regards.
(image via VOA)
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